SONDAGGI / SIAMO I PIÙ SCONFORTATI DEL MONDO, E SENZA FIDUCIA NON C'È CRESCITA

Il premier più ottimista del paese più pessimista

 «Siate ottimisti, è un nostro preciso dovere, perché chi non ha fiducia in sé e nel futuro non riuscirà a far andare le cose in meglio». Parola di Silvio Berlusconi, ieri al Consiglio nazionale di Forza Italia che lo ha reincoronato leader per le prossime elezioni. Almeno fino a nuova decisione contraria. C'è naturalmente del vero, nell'afflato berlusconiano. Senonché noti è esattamente l'effetto che il governo ha esercitato sugli italiani. Anzi. Un sondaggio condotto dal 17 al 21 luglio dall'Istituto demoscopico Harris su un campione di mille cittadini degli Stati Uniti e dei diversi paesi dell'Unione europea, vede l'Italia sconsolatamente fanalino di coda, quanto a ottimismo e fiducia. Il 58% degli americani si dichiara «molto soddisfatto della propria vita», rispetto allo scarno 31 % della media europea.Tre anni fa, i molto soddisfatti erano il 57 e il 26%, rispettivamente. Un altro 56% di americani pensa che la propria vita sia significativamente migliorata dal 2000 a oggi, rispetto al 45% degli europei, e anche in questo caso l'ottimismo avanza visto che due anni fa era solo il 49% degli americani e il 39% degli europei a pensarlo. li vero gap di ottimismo tra le due rive dell'Atlantico riguarda il futuro: perché sono ben il 65% degli americani a dirsi convinti di altri grandi miglioramenti nel prossimo quinquennio, mentre gli europei sono solo il 45%. Un divario che la dice lunga, sulla depressione che grava sul nostro modello socio-economico continentale.

Se poi si va al dato europeo disaggregato per paese, solo la Danimarca batte gli States, col suo 64% di cittadini che si dichiara «molto soddisfatta delle proprie condizioni di vita». Tiitti gli altri stanno ben sotto il 58% americano. Il Lussemburgo al 51, l'Olanda e la Svezia al 44, l'Irlanda al 39, il Regno Unito al 33,e via via in caduta libera sino al 21% di molto soddisfatti in Germania, e al 18% in Francia. L'Italia è la terra dei pessimisti, un paese corroso dalla sfiducia nel proprio presente e nel proprio futuro. I molto soddisfatti sono solo il 16%, quattro volte meno che negli Usa, la metà che in Inghilterra. Di fronte al 65% di americani convinto di migliorare motto il proprio benessere al 2010, la stessa opinione è condivisa dal 58% di irlandesi, dal 56% degli spagnoli, dal 55% dei britannici, dal 51 % degli svedesi, dal 47% dei francesi. -Ra gli italiani, sono solo il 24% a pensarlo. Peggio di noi in questo caso stanno solo i tedeschi, con un 23% che si aspetta avanzamenti di reddito, meno del 26% che si aspetta invece di scendere ulteriormente, nella piramide sociale. Se in quel suo romanzo opali molto di moda in tempi di terrorismo imperante, Lagente segreto, Joseph Conrad ha ragione a criticare «la macchia di quel rassegnato pessimismo che corrompe il mondo», ebbene bisogna concludere il governo Berlusconi ha avuto un effetto corruttore. Quanto meno sulla fiducia degli italiani. Se l'America corre quattro volte più di noi, è anche perchè è appunto quattro volte più ottimista, perché l'ascensore sociale dell'ameriican dream è sempre in funzione.

Il Riformista 29-07-2005

the Harris Poll^® #55, July 20, 2005

Americans Remain More Optimistic and Satisfied with Life than Europeans

Majority of Americans - but majorities in only five of 15 European countries - believe their lives have improved in the last five years

With a few exceptions, Americans are generally happier with their lives and more optimistic about their future than are Europeans, according to a new Harris Poll. In this survey, Americans were asked some of the same questions that were asked in a recent Eurobarometer survey conducted for the European Union.

The big picture is that Americans are much more satisfied with their lives, much more likely to believe that their lives have improved and much more likely to expect their personal situations will improve than most Europeans.

Fully 58 percent of Americans are very satisfied with their lives compared to the 15-country European average of 31 percent. Fifty-six percent of Americans think that their lives have improved in the last five years compared to 45 percent of Europeans. Furthermore, 65 percent of Americans expect their personal situation will improve in the next five years compared to only 44 percent of Europeans. However, Europe is not at all homogenous and the mood varies widely from country to country.

For the most part, the results from both the U.S. and European surveys show attitudes have improved since Harris Interactive^® conducted a similar exercise two years ago.

This Harris Poll was conducted by telephone by Harris Interactive among a nationwide cross section of 1,000 U.S. adults between June 17 and 21, 2005. The European Commission conducted the Eurobarometer 62 survey in the fall of 2004 with 1,000 or more adults in 25 countries that are part of the European Union, except in Belgium where 974 adults were surveyed and in Luxembourg where 502 adults were surveyed.

Life satisfaction

The proportions of Europeans who are very satisfied with their lives vary from 64 percent in Denmark (the only country that is higher than the 58% in the United States), 51 percent in Luxemburg, 44 percent in the Netherlands and 44 percent in Sweden to only three percent in Portugal, 14 percent in Greece and 16 percent in Italy.

The overall average for 15 European countries has increased from 26 percent of Europeans who said they were very satisfied with their lives in 2002 to the current 31 percent. This compares with the U.S. figures of 57percent of Americans who said they were very satisfied with their lives in 2003 and 58 percent who say this now. The European countries that have seen the largest increases in level of satisfaction in the past two years are Belgium (up 16 points), Spain (up 14 points), Luxembourg (up 12 points), and Finland (up 11 points). Those countries seeing decreases in satisfaction levels include Austria (down 4 points) and Portugal (down 3 points).

Life Has Improved

The largest proportions of Europeans who feel that their lives have improved in the last five years are in Ireland (63%), Sweden (60%), and the United Kingdom (57%), compared to 56 percent of Americans. Other countries with large proportions who feel that their lives have become better include Denmark (56%), Finland (55%), Luxembourg (46%) and Spain (46%).

At the other end of the spectrum, only 26 percent of adults in Germany, 28 percent in Portugal, and 31 percent in Austria think their lives have improved in the last five years.

The overall average for 15 European countries has increased from 39 percent who said that their lives have improved in the past five years in 2002 to the current 45 percent. This compares with the U.S. figures of 49 percent who said their lives improved in last five years in 2003 and 56 percent who say this now. Countries that have seen the largest increases on this measure in the past two years are Belgium (up 17 points), Finland (up 14 points), United Kingdom (up 11 points), and Sweden (up 10 points). Those countries seeing decreases include Italy (down 7 points) and Portugal (down 7 points).

Optimism about the future

Concerning the future, the most optimistic countries in Europe are Ireland, Spain and the United Kingdom though none of these are as optimistic as adults in the United States. Nearly two-thirds (65%) of adults in the United States say they expect their lives will improve in the next five years, compared to 58 percent in Ireland, 56 percent in Spain, 55 percent in the U.K. and 51 percent in Sweden.

At the other end of the spectrum, only 23 percent of Germans, 35 percent of Austrians, 36 percent of Belgians, and 37 percent of the Dutch expect their personal situations will improve.

The overall average for 15 European countries has increased from 41 percent who said that their lives will improve in the next five years in 2002 to the current 44 percent. This compares with the U.S. figures of 63 percent who said their lives will improve in next five years in 2003 and 65 percent now. Countries that have seen the largest increases on this measure in the past two years are the United Kingdom (up 8 points), Austria (up 8 points), Ireland (up 7 points), and Finland (up 7 points). Those countries seeing decreases include Italy (down 12 points) and the Netherlands (down 3 points).

Is there a pattern?

Within Europe, there is a clear pattern with some countries, mostly in Northern Europe, giving generally upbeat and positive responses, while other countries, particularly Germany and the Mediterranean countries, indicating they are much less happy or optimistic.

Ireland, United Kingdom, Denmark, Sweden, and Finland score better than the 15-country European average on all questions. Germany and Austria do poorly on all three questions and especially on those questions related to the last and next five years.

Greece and Portugal have very low life satisfaction scores and are below average on thinking that their present situation has improved over the last five years but are close to the European average on optimism for the next five years. Spaniards are near the bottom on life satisfaction but are also the most optimistic people.

The other pattern, of course, is the big differences between Americans and Europeans. For the most part the findings from the United States are much higher than the average of the 15 European countries. However, compared to two years ago, there are a few European countries (Ireland, Denmark, Sweden and United Kingdom) that are coming closer to the levels of American optimism.

TABLE 1

OVERALL LIFE SATISFACTION – 2004/2005

"On the whole, are you very satisfied, fairly satisfied, not very satisfied, or not at all satisfied with the life you lead? Would you say you are very satisfied, fairly satisfied, not very satisfied, or not at all satisfied?"

Base: All Adults

TABLE 2

PERCENTAGE WHO ARE Very Satisfied with their lives

Comparison 2002/2003 to 2004/2005

Base: All Adults

TABLE 3

PRESENT LIFE SITUATION COMPARED TO FIVE YEARS AGO – 2004/2005

"If you compare your present situation with five years ago, would you say it has improved, stayed about the same or got worse?"

Base: All Adults

TABLE 4

PERCENTAGE SAYING Life has improved in last FIVE years

Comparison 2002/2003 to 2004/2005

Base: All Adults

TABLE 5

EXPECTED PERSONAL SITUATION IN FIVE YEARS – 2004/2005

"In the course of the next five years, do you expect your personal situation to improve, to stay about the same or to get worse?"

Base: All Adults

TABLE 6

PERCENTAGE SAYING THEY Expect THEIR Personal Situation Will Improve in the Next five Years

Comparison 2002/2003 to 2004/2005

Base: All Adults

Methodology

The Harris Poll^® was conducted by telephone within the United States between June 17 and 21, 2005 among a nationwide cross section of 1,000 adults aged 18 and over. Figures for sex, race, education, and region were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

The most recent European data (2004/2005) comes from the Eurobarometer 62 survey conducted by the European Commission in person (face-to-face) in the fall of 2004 among 1,000 or more adults aged 15 and over in 25 European Union-member countries, except Belgium where 974 adults were surveyed and Luxembourg where 502 adults were surveyed. The 2002/2003 European data come from the Eurobarometer 57 survey conducted in person (face-to-face) in the spring of 2002 among 1,000 or more adults aged 15 and over in 25 European Union-member countries, except in Luxembourg where 600 adults were surveyed.

(Note: Since the data from the Eurobarometer 62 and 57 are from fall 2004 and spring 2002 respectively, this should be considered when making comparisons to these new U.S. Harris Poll results).

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

J24642

Q555, Q560, Q565